Daily Market Color 9/17/2012

Daily Market Color

9/17/2012

Economic Reports & Headlines

The Empire Manufacturing Survey came in lower than expected; Actual (-10.41) Vs. Consensus (-2.00). New York business executes are expecting business conditions to worsen. This report is conducted by the New York FED on the first of each month. Roughly 175 New York business executives, across various industries, participate in the survey.

Overseas, European Union Merchandise Trade for July was narrower than expected, but still registered a surplus, Actual 7.9bn Vs. Consensus 9.8bn

Future Reports

US Housing Market Index will be released at 10:00am. The street is calling for a fifth straight month of improvement in the housing sector. The index is currently at levels not seen since mid 2007.

Tonight at 9:30pm in Australia, the Reserve Bank Board (RBB) will issue minutes, with a two week lag, of its most recent monthly meeting. Although the RBB normally issues a statement immediately after their meetings, the minutes are usually more detailed

Tomorrow we will get the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy announcement. This event should move the Nikkie or the Yen, depending on what's announced

In Britain we will get August CPI numbers. Economists are calling for a month over month increase of 50bps and a year over year increase of 260bps

Trades

The FED actions last week is supportive of risk assets, in particular precious metals. Treasuries should continue their decline since treasuries are no longer an outlet for QE. So, I plan on either going long equities or precious metals while simultaneously shorting treasuries.

Daily Market Color 9/4/2012

Daily Market Color

9/4/2012

Today’s Economic Reports & Headlines

Motor Vehicle Sales for August will be released today; total vehicle sales consensus is 14.3 million   

PMI manufacturing for August came out slightly higher than last month’s reading, registering a mild expansion at 51.5

At 10:00am today we ISM Manufacturing data for August, the street is estimating that the index will give a reading of 50

Also at 10:00am we have construction spending, economists are calling for a month over month increase of 40 basis points

Overseas, we have Australia’s second quarter GDP coming out at 9:30pm, economists are calling for quarter over quarter increase of 80 basis points

Tomorrow’s Reports

Nonfarm business productivity will be released at 8:30am, economists are calling for 1.9% Q/Q increase

The Bank of Canada will have their policy announcement at 9:00am

EMU, Germany and Britain will release PMI services data

Australia Labor Force Survey reading will come out at 9:30pm

Trades

This Friday we have Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) in the US, economists are expecting 125k gain in employment.  In the event of a large upset to the down side, I anticipate a sharp increase in Treasuries that will continue into next week’s FED policy announcement. However, if there is no downside or upside surprise, I don’t expect much of a move in either direction for the US 10yr

On September 6^th, the ECB will announce their policy decision which will be followed by a press conference, I expect to hear no details regarding Mario’s bond buying plans. At this juncture any commentary on unlimited easing from the ECB will be conditional on Germany’s court ruling on the ESM next Wednesday.  

The Australian dollar has been in a downward trend for several days now because of declining commodity prices. The Reserve Ban k of Australia believes the weak dollar will trigger a rebound. I will pay attention to Australia’s GDP numbers tonight; a large surprise to the downside should push the Aussie dollar lower and I will look to go short as a result.